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In a year that already has proved to be massive for the UFC, with one major card after another, UFC 205 on Nov. 12 at Madison Square Garden in New York looks to be the biggest and most important of them all. In honor of such a marquee event, ESPN.com is providing dedicated previews to all 13 bouts on the card, breaking down whats at stake and projecting who will win, along with quotes and statistics for each fighter.Middleweights: Rafael Natal (21-7-1) vs. Tim Boetsch?(19-10)Odds as of Nov. 2:?Natal -160; Boetsch +140Dana Whites thoughtsYou know, two tough veterans, battling to stick around here. Thats how sports go. All sports, not just this one. Make a few errors in a key game, youre on the line. NFL -- Jonas Gray was a running back for the Patriots, stud, every time they put him on the field hed get 100 yards rushing, was late to practice and you never saw the guy again. Done. So, thats just the truth of every sport.Whats at stake?One step back to take a few forward for NatalManhattans Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu academy sits less than two blocks away from Madison Square Garden.Natal, 33, has been shaping his skills at W. 30th Street since moving to New York eight years ago and believes none of those years has been as critical to his development as 2016.Natal was recently shaping up to be the Cinderella of the division, having strung together four consecutive wins. That streak ended in April, when he came up short in a three-round fight against Australias Robert Whittaker.Following the loss, Natal requested time off to fill certain holes in his game, and he is eager to show that off against a battle-tested opponent in Boetsch.Renzos academy is one street behind Madison Square Garden. I see it every day, Natal said. In my last fight, I couldnt take him down -- first time in 30 fights. I take people down all the time. He avoided it, and that was a little frustrating. But I believe everything happens for a reason. Sometimes the best thing is to take one step back to take a few steps forward.I asked the UFC to give me a few months off to improve. Had I beat Whittaker, I would have asked for a top-five [opponent]. I wasnt ready for that, but now Ive fixed these things.Boetsch: I never feel secure until I get my hand raisedJust about every fighter on the UFCs roster would have given anything to receive an offer to fight in New York.When that offer came for Boetsch, the first emotion he felt was something close to dread.I was expecting to fight at the beginning of next year, Boetsch said. When I got a call from [matchmaker] Joe Silva out of the blue, I was concerned.Boetsch, 35, is coming off an upset win over Josh Samman in July, but before that, The Barbarian had lost three consecutive bouts. He has never forgotten what it felt like to exit the UFC; the promotion let him walk in 2009 before re-signing him the following year.I had three losses in a row before my last fight, Boetsch said. I was anticipating the call to say, We appreciate your time but no longer need your services. I was prepared for that call, and it never came. Instead, they called to offer me a fight on the biggest card in UFC history.I take pride in giving people exactly what they expect when I fight, but if were being honest, I never feel secure until I get my hand raised. Ive been cut by the UFC before. I understand the nature of this business. You better put on an exciting performance, but at the same time, you better win every fight. I go in with that mindset. I probably shouldnt put that pressure on myself, but its always on my mind.Boetsch believes others fighters might have scrambled their game after dropping three in a row, but says he was able to take a sensible approach. In June 2015, he got caught by a Dan Henderson right hand. In January of this year, it was an Ed Herman knee. Disappointing losses for sure, but Boetsch said he believes he has always had the recipe for success and that it hasnt changed.Those are two weapons no one wants to run into, and they found their way through on me, Boetsch said. Thats just fighting. I know the formula to win is there though. I just need to execute.Statistical comparisonNatal: 21-7-1 record (9-5-1 UFC); four-fight winning streak snapped in last fight Natal: 36 takedowns in UFC competition, most all-time in middleweight divisionBoetsch: 19-10 record (10-9 UFC); 14 of 19 wins by stoppage Boetsch: Lands 53 percent of significant strikes in UFC middleweight fights, sixth-highest among active UFC middleweightsBreakdownNatal isnt kidding when he says he couldnt get Whittaker down. He struggled to get anything going in that last fight, and his decision to take time off and evolve speaks to that.Boetsch doesnt have the same steady kickboxing approach that gave Natal so much trouble. His output is way lower, but he has a good deal of one-punch knockout power. Natal performs better when hes not on his back foot the whole time, which shouldnt be the case against the heavy-handed but at times lumbering style of Boetsch.A lot hinges on Natals ability, or lack thereof, to avoid the big shot. Hes durable and will probably have an advantage with judges simply because he does more, but Boetsch is a bigger threat for a KO.PREDICTION:?Natal via decision. Cheap Padres Jerseys . -- Anaheim Ducks captain and leading scorer Ryan Getzlaf has been scratched from Sunday nights game against the Vancouver Canucks because of an upper-body injury. Fake Padres Jerseys . But Bourque, who has missed three games with a lower-body injury, wont be in the lineup when the Habs travel to Buffalo to take on the Sabres on Wednesday. https://www.cheappadresjerseys.us/ . -- Jimmie Johnson held off a teammate, passed a pair of Hall of Famers, and dominated once more at Dover. San Diego Padres Pro Shop . Most important, perhaps, it went off without a hitch. Organizers poked a little fun at the now-infamous opening ceremony gaffe that saw only four out of five snowflakes open up into rings, leaving the Olympics logo one ring short. Padres Jerseys 2020 . -- The goal posts lying flat on the field, Arizonas fans lingered on the field, congregating around the locker room entrance nearly 30 minutes after rushing out of the stands. CHICAGO -- The 2001 Mariners won 116 games, and they couldnt do it. The 1995 Indians were 56 games over .500, and they couldnt do it. The 2004 Cardinals won 105 games, and all theyre known for is being That Team That Lost to the Red Sox.Those three tremendous teams all had one thing in common -- and this is where we would advise the 2016 Cubs to pay close attention. Once upon a time, all of them were clearly The Best Darned Team in Baseball, just like the Cubs of this year. Over the regular season, that is. Ah, but what did that get them?Uh, not a World Series parade. Thats for sure. You know what they got out of it? An unhappy ending, nightmares that keep springing back to life and scars that never heal. Thats what.So even as the Cubs head back to Wrigley Field on Saturday night for an epic National League Championship Series Game 6 that Cubs Nation might never forget, Joe Maddon knows the landscape is still filled with land mines. And not all those land mines are named Clayton Kershaw, either. The biggest land mine of all might just be known as baseball -- or, at least, baseball in the multilayered wild-card era.I think that the system is built for the best team having a chance to lose, Maddon said with a knowing chuckle.Well, he has no idea (by his own admission) how right he is. So here come the shocking details:? This is Year 22 of the wild-card era. Just twice in the previous 21 seasons has a team like the Cubs, which led the major leagues outright in victories, gone on to win the World Series. The only two to win it all: the 1998 and 2009 Yankees. (No National League team has done it in 30 years, since the 1986 Mets.)? But even if we include teams that tied for the best record in the sport, the percentage of best teams that win a championship in baseball is much lower than in the other three major professional sports. In MLB, its just 19 percent (4-of-21) under this format. In the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information research, its 31 percent (8-of-26) under the current playoff format. In the NHL, its also 31 percent (11-of-36) since that league expanded to 16 playoff teams. And in the NBA, its a whopping 48 percent (16-of-33) in 33 seasons under the current 16-team setup.Suppose, however, we consider a whole new definition of what constitutes the best teams. Suppose we just look at teams that have won 100 games in the wild-card era. Well, the odds dont get any better. The Cubs are the 23rd team in the wild-card age to win 100 or more. You know how many of the previous 22 went on to win the World Series? That would be precisely two (again, those 1998 and 2009 Yankees).But why? Thats the question. What makes this mission so close to impossible? What is it about the baseball postseason that sends so many great teams careening off an October cliff? We decided to ask a group of men who have lived through it.Now granted, one of them (Joe Torre) managed those 1998 Yankees, a juggernaut that actually made it to the land of champagne and ticker tape. But all of these men have lived through enough October pain to understand exactly why winning a title in baseball is the toughest road in sports. So here are the tales they tell:Theres not enough reward for being greatFirst off, think about what you get for being the best team. You get home-field advantage through the league championship series. And thats about it. But is that enough? Home field is a huge advantage in those other sports. But in baseball, it can actually be a disadvantage, Torre thinks.Im probably in the minority, but I always thought that starting a series on the road was an advantage, he said. And thats because the home team is supposed to win twice. So if you go in and win the first one in their place, now you can run the table. Ive always thought the home team had a lot more pressure on them.And guess which team he uses as the perfect example of that pressure? Right you are: The Cubs, even though the Cubs team that his Dodgers played back in 2008 was never in the same position to win that these Cubs are in. But Torre has spent enough of his life observing Cubs fans to admit he wanted to start that series in Chicago.When I managed the Dodgers in 08, I think we benefited in 08 from them not winning the World Series, Torre said, because we went into Chicago, and all they talked about was this drought or curse or whatever you want to call it -- and we wind up sweeping them. Even though [that Cubs team] had nothing to do with it, [they] still had to answer for it.When things are going great and you see the home team feeding off the euphoria in the stands, its one of the most joyous sights in sports. But when things suddenly stop going so great? Uh-oh. Fans can get tense -- especially in some of Americas most nervous metropolises. And when they do, you know who can get tense right there with them? Were about to let you in on that.Even great teams feel the pressureCharlie Manuel isnt over it yet. In 2011, he managed a Phillies team that was a lot like the 2016 Cubs. It was a team that had That Look from the first day of spring training, and then went out and won 102 games -- five more than any other team in baseball that season.But if you dont recall the 2011 Phillies World Series parade, thats because it never happened, of course. And the manager still stews over all the strange stuff that befell that team in its memorable loss to the wild-card Cardinals in one of the best division series of modern times. There was the Rally Squirrel that unnerved Roy Oswalt. And Cliff Lee blowing a four-run lead (for just the second time in his life). And two balls his outfielders didnt catch in the shadows of a late-afternoon start. And, especially, a traumatic 1-0 loss in Game 5 to a brilliant Chris Carpenter.So five years later, do you want to guess what Manuel remembers most about that Game 5? Its the tension that welled up in the stands and the tension that enveloped his players as the zeroes and the pressure mounted.I remember everything about it, Manuel said. And you know what? The ballpark was tense. Our fans were tense. Our players were tense, especially after we played a few innings and we werent ahead. And all of a sudden, we started swinging real hard. Go back and look at it ... the balls we chased and how hard we were swinging. We were trying to get it all back too quick, when we still had time in the game to be ourselves.On one level, Manuel still finds it amazing that the great players on that team -- a team filled with men who had won a World Series and played in so many postseason games -- would feel that weight, get undone by that pressure. But on another level, he has seen it too many times, over too many years, to be shocked. He was the hitting coach on that 1995 Indians team too -- and even that powerhouse lineup, he said, definitely felt the pressure in losing that World Series to the Braves.You can see it, even on winning teams, Manuel said. There is a feeling there. And whether athletes want to admit it or not, theres a fear of failure that definitely can creep in, in those big games like that.So far in this postseason, the Cubs have been as good as it gets at deflecting those feelings. But it wouldnnt be hard to imagine that same tension gripping Wrigley Field on Sunday night, if the Cubs should lose to Kershaw in Game 6 and then have?to win Game 7.dddddddddddd. Now would it?The pressure grows every yearAt least this Cubs team appears to be in the beginning of what could be an extended window to win. But imagine being the exact opposite of this team -- a group of players who have begun to recognize that theyre at the end of their window and havent won nearly as much as anyone (including them) thinks they should.If that sounds like the Braves of 1991-2005, congratulations. Youve just won a copy of The Life and Times of Jeff Blauser. OK, no you havent. But youve definitely been paying attention, because with every year the Braves didnt win a second World Series, after beating Cleveland in 1995, the heat on the core of that team grew a little more scorching.The reality is, said John Smoltz, Foxs lead baseball analyst, we should have won in 96. So we should have won back-to-back.But because Jim Leyritz hit the long ball of a lifetime, that team didnt win two World Series in a row. And even though the Braves kept going back to October for another nine consecutive seasons -- and actually averaged 103 wins a year from 1997-99 -- they were always haunted by the years they didnt win. So they felt the tonnage of those losses in every one of those Octobers.There are so many things that I think change the destiny of a ballclub, based on the end result, Smoltz said. And in 1996, when we were up, two games to none, against the Yankees, we were going to win our second consecutive World Series. If we do, theres no way John Schuerholz trades David Justice or Jermaine Dye. Theres no way he trades Marquis Grissom. You dont change a team that won. But because we lost and the Yankees won, they went on to spit out four out of five. And that, to me, was the hardest thing for us to take, was that we were in position to win a championship back-to-back. And who knows what could have been for us.Smoltz still believes that if the Braves had just won that World Series, they would have gone on to be the team of the 90s, not the Yankees. They would have kept that team together. They never would have had to play those future postseasons under the omnipresent cloud of Team That Cant Win the Big One. So who knows how many more times they would have won?That team won 100 games in six different seasons -- and won the World Series in none of those years. But how minuscule for those Braves was the line between dynasty and disaster? Lets reflect on that too.One pitch, one bounce, one call, one playSuppose Mark Wohlers had never hung that fateful slider to Leyritz in 1996? Suppose, for that matter, Dye hadnt gotten tangled up with the right-field umpire, Tim Welke, in a bizarre play in the same game, as the Yankees were blowing a 6-0 lead? Suppose theyd won Game 4 and led that World Series three games to one, instead of being tied 2-2?How different might everything have been -- because of one pitch or one crazy moment that no one has witnessed before or since? We cant answer those questions, of course. But go back and take a look at every postseason in this era. There is always a pitch, a play, an umpires call or a ball that bounces the right (wrong) way -- and alters the fate of teams, players and the fans who care much too deeply about them.Everyone we talked to for this piece had a story like that -- a moment they cant forget, one which would have turned games and postseasons and careers upside-down.Never put a percentage on how much luck is in a baseball game, Manuel said. And human nature plays a role.As the Red Sox were coming back after losing the first three games to the Yankees in 2004, there were so many tiny little twists of fate that made it all possible. And not just Dave Roberts stealing second and making it by 1/16 of an inch. Torre can still see a Tony Clark double that would have given the Yankees the lead in the ninth inning of Game 5 -- if it hadnt bounced into the seats in Fenway as no other ball has hopped before or since.Manuel still shakes his head over that squirrel in St. Louis in 2008. And a wild Bartolo Colon pickoff throw against the Mariners in 2001 that was supposed to be a bluff. And an unlikely game-winning 2010 home run by Juan Uribe -- off a Ryan Madson slider that missed its target by a foot.Giants bench coach Ron Wotus said he is still haunted by the agonizing out call on J.T. Snows slide at the plate -- and by a fly ball Jose Cruz Jr. didnt catch -- in the 2003 loss to the Marlins that ended the Giants only 100-win season in the past two decades.In baseball, more than any other sport, those October oddities youve never seen before are often the reason that so many underdogs win and so many 100-win teams go fishing. But we never seem to account for that.Winning is very fleeting, Wotus said. And Im speaking from experience, from the three World Series we won too. Its the bounce of the ball. Its a bloop hit. Its something strange -- one player having a tremendous night. Its so fleeting that ... everyones goal is to win the World Series, but its always something strange like that, that seems to knock you out of that.October isnt fairWhat it all comes down to, really, is that postseason baseball is a whole different sport. So the qualities that make teams great from April through September arent the qualities that decide who wins in October. And is there any greater example than what weve already witnessed in October 2016?Its a totally different season, Smoltz said. You might as well just play baseball totally different. I get the complexities with some of it. But there are too many off days. And you dont utilize your roster the way you would in 162 games. You would never be able to pitch your closer three innings and come back the next day and even think about using him.Would the Indians be in the World Series if they hadnt been able to use Andrew Miller to make six multi-inning bullpen appearances, totaling 171 pitches, in the same postseason? Would the Dodgers still be playing if Kenley Jansen hadnt shown up on the mound at the start of the seventh inning in Game 5 in Washington? Those answers are no and, well, no.You cant do that in the regular season, Smoltz said. Nor would you. Everybodys claiming now that thats the way it should be, but it cant. You have to approach it differently. ... It would be like the Golden State Warriors abandoning their approach and trying to shoot all 2-pointers in the playoffs. Its just not going to be part of their game plan.But thats just kind of what happens now in baseball. Its a format that you can play totally different than you would in the regular season.Well, that format isnt changing. Not any time soon. And certainly not between now and the start of Game 6 at Wrigley. So no wonder the ingenious architect of these Cubs, Theo Epstein, said that when you build a team, all you can do is construct a roster that you think can get you to October.Yeah, but what happens once you get there?Then, he said, you pray. ' ' '